David Kelly

The Hockey Guru

David Kelly is a Toronto-born hockey analyst with multiple advanced degrees. His academic work includes five years of empirical NHL research, including home/visiting team performance and penalty/power play effects on Over/Unders. In the 2017-18 season, Kelly nailed 57 percent of his picks and $100 bettors who followed him profited $3,429. During the 2017 NHL playoffs, Kelly correctly predicted 39 out of 50 Over/Unders, a stunning win rate of 78 percent. He continues to pursue innovative models of in-depth statistical analysis of the NHL. For David Kelly media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

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David's
Picks

UNDER 5.5 UNDER 5.5

Washington 4 @ Vegas 3
6/08
WAS 4 @ LV 3
6/08
LOSS
Wed 6/6

Vegas has not been able to answer the bell that Washington is ringing. The Caps are beating the Knights at their own game and the disparity in star power is making the difference. Give the Capitals high marks for taking the flow and tempo straight to the Knights. The games have been hard-fought and if not for a few remarkable saves by Braden Holtby, the series might be knotted 2-2. But it's not; it's 3-1 Caps and I fear the Washington hounds smell the blood of victory. It would surprise me if Vegas was able to fend off the onslaught of this Capitals' offensive push to extend the series. This season will always be remembered for the incredible job Gerard Gallant did with the Knights and the maturation of Alex Ovechkin, who appears poised to add his name to the list of all-time greats on the Stanley Cup. This game will be tight, hard-fought and very entertaining. It also should be Under the 5.5 line.

15-8-1 IN LAST 24 WAS O/U PICKS | +696

Washington +120 WAS +120

Washington 4 @ Vegas 3
6/08
WAS 4 @ LV 3
6/08
WIN
Wed 6/6

This year has been a great success for SportsLine hockey fans. We've enjoyed providing coverage of the NHL season and helping to provide insight into great wagering opportunities that the sport offers. It would appear on Thursday the season will come to a close. Overcoming a 3-1 deficit is next to impossible, as only the Red Wings did it twice in the six-team era. The Capitals' star power has proven a bit too much for the Golden Knights to handle, so look for Washington's 43-season championship drought to end in Vegas in what should be a low-scoring game. Washington shouldn't be +120 in this game; it has the flow and the firepower to close out the series. Take Washington at +120 and thanks in advance from SportsLine for adding the NHL to your wagering menu this season. Looking forward to next year already!

14-8 IN LAST 22 LV ML PICKS | +470

8-5 IN LAST 13 WAS ML PICKS | +305

UNDER 5.5 UNDER 5.5

Vegas 1 @ Washington 3
6/03
LV 1 @ WAS 3
6/03
WIN
Sat 6/2

So, I've been back and forth between the money line and the Over-Under on the last few games when I should have just stuck to my contention that this series will be filled with tight checking and hard-hitting play, which means tough scoring opportunities. Saturday will be no different, and now that the goalies' jitters from playing in the finals are out of their systems, they'll be back to doing their thing. The teams will be giving their all and many, many blocked shots means the play here is on the Under 5.5.

15-8-1 IN LAST 24 WAS O/U PICKS | +696

Vegas -155 LV -155

Washington 3 @ Vegas 2
5/31
WAS 3 @ LV 2
5/31
LOSS
Tue 5/29

Telling stats of Game 1 -- Hits: Washington 38 Vegas 25; Takeaways: Vegas 22, Washington 9; Shots on Goal: Vegas 34, Washington 28. Translation: Washington tried to pull a Winnipeg and run Vegas out of its own house and all it got back was the all-to-familiar Vegas ?churn and burn," tenacious checking response. The hit -- or non-hit depending upon who is spinning the narrative -- by Tom Wilson on Jonathan Marchessault has elevated Wilson to the status of an Alex Burrows or Patrik Hornqvist in terms of dirty play which seemed to motivate the Knights in their third period three-goal outburst on their way to victory. ?All the nerves are gone now so we can settle down, ?Caps captain Alex Ovechkin said. Hmm, well Alex I have news for you, the Knights were nervous too and if they settle into their ?game? you can?t beat them. If that?s the worse Vegas can play, and I think it is, this may be a short series.

14-8 IN LAST 22 LV ML PICKS | +470

8-5 IN LAST 13 WAS ML PICKS | +305

UNDER 5.5 UNDER 5.5

Washington 4 @ Vegas 6
5/29
WAS 4 @ LV 6
5/29
LOSS
Sun 5/27

Vegas has held its opponents to two goals or less in 13 of 15 games, while scoring 43, but that also includes a 7-0 defeat of the Sharks. So, in reality, 36 goals in 14 games for an average of 2.47. So add 2.47 to the 1.80 goals allowed per game for a total of 4.27 goals per game. This indicates just how good the Golden Knights are defensively and how they can win close games (12-3 record, 7-1 in one-goal games). I don't see the scoring dam breaking open for either team, so I'm a strong Under 5.5.

15-8-1 IN LAST 24 WAS O/U PICKS | +696

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